Adam Dunn & David Ortiz: Tied for 35th All-Time. Who will hit more HR’s?

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Both Adam Dunn and David Ortiz recently passed the great Carl Yastrzemski on the all-time home runs list and are currently tied at the number 35 spot with 455 home runs a piece. This of course begs the question; Which player will have hit more when it is all said and done?

The easy answer could be Adam Dunn, who at the age of 34 find himself exactly 3 years and 356 days younger than David Ortiz. So, you would think that he has more time to accumulate these dingers. However there are some outlying factors that could significantly shift the odds.

In 2011 Adam Dunn joined the Chicago White Sox after two consecutive 38 home run seasons. He would finish out the season with 11 home runs and a .159 batting average through 415 at-bats. The next next year things would rebound in a power sense as he put up 41 homers but would produce just a .204 average. 2013 saw 34 home runs and a .219 average. This season he is batting .227 through 277 at-bats and appears to be on pace for a 25-30 home run year depending on if he gets hot or not.

The book on Dunn has not changed. He is a home run hitter that will struggle for average. However, these past few season have really started to tilt toward the extremes. Perhaps his only saving grace beyond his power is his ability to get on base. The .325 OBP since 2011 certainly helps off set the .202 batting average.

So going forward you should see Dunn as a serviceable player that will have a spot as long as he can continue to get on-base with the same regularity and hit 20 to 30 home runs a year. However towards the end of last season Dunn was quoted by Fox Sports; “I’m not coming back just to come back for money or because I have one year left (on his contract),”…“I’m not coming back to chase home-run numbers or whatever. If I end up with 499 and I’m not having fun, see ya — 499 it is.”

Who knows if he was being sincere or just blowing off steam after a frustrating year. But either way, you have to question his attitude going forward.

Then there is David Ortiz, “Big Papi”, who just seems to defy age and skeptics on a daily basis. Of course he cannot play forever, but he fully expects to finish out his contract with the Red Sox and maybe then some. Yes, Ortiz’ averages have come down a little bit this year, but his power production is as good as it has been in years. With 23 home runs through 360 at-bats, Ortiz is on pace for his second straight season with at least 30 homers and 100 RBI.

When I look at David Ortiz, I see a guy that is coming off of three straight seasons of .300+ hitting and an .950+ OPS. I see a guy who loves his job, loves the game, and will keep coming back until he is forced into retirement.

So it is a tough one to pick. But when it comes down to it, I believe that both David Ortiz and Adam Dunn will finish up around the same time in the next three to four years. In that time, Ortiz will probably have a higher production value, and in turn, receive more at-bats.

In truth, it is probably too close to call at this point. But if you put a gun to my head, I would have to say that David Ortiz will wind up with more home runs.

Final Prediction: Ortiz 519,  Dunn 507

Since Beginning of 2011
HR AVG OBP SLUG OPS K
Adam Dunn (age 34) 101 .202 .325 .411 .736 694
David Ortiz  (age 38) 106 .298 .389 .557 .946 285



Dunn HR Chart since 2011Ortiz HR chart Since 2011

Comments

  1. ficklefingeroffate says:

    Oritiz will he is still using PEDs.

  2. The PED thing is ridiculous in my opinion, if he used them, I don’t think it was for long, or that it made a difference in his numbers. The thing that matters most I believe is how many of those homers made a difference? Big Papi wins that one hands down!